Wales can win if they play like England

By QBE Senior Media Relations Manager Sandra Villanueva

So far in the two games that Wales has played and won in the Guinness Six Nations, they have adopted the same game and risk management strategy as England but even more so. To win, Wales need to hold their nerve and continue to outperform England at their own game.

The successful risk averse strategy which England employed last year, and now being practised by Wales, is paying off handsomely. This strategy is characterised by combining an effective attacking output with strong defence and conceding fewer turnovers. Teams with this strategy also bring into play more effective tactical kicking and less carries, so they play less time with the ball, thus avoiding the risk of turnovers etc. This risk averse strategy only leads to reward and success if they then put the opposition under immediate pressure in dangerous areas, forcing them into making mistakes, which they exploit to score points with greater Red Zone efficiency. In the 2021 tournament so far, teams with higher Red Zone efficiency on average per game went on to win 83% of the time, whereas in the 2020 tournament as a whole the figure was only 53%. So greater Red Zone efficiency is key to success this year compared to last.

According to the QBE Risk & Reward Index, Wales has achieved this success so far, on average per game in 2021 in comparison with England, by:

• Having the highest Red Zone efficiency, and double England’s (3.2 to 1.5), with France almost as high at 2.8 and the rest at 1.32 or 1.28

• Kicking more metres (932 to 868) with a similar number of total kicks (55 to 56) but kicking mainly for territory (41 to 29) not to compete (14 to 27)

• Conceding less turnovers (9.5 to 12)

• Having a lower number of carries (88 to 108.5) and time in possession (17.06 to 18.06), with only France averaging lower possession time

• Similar levels of tackle success with Wales at 88.9%, second only to Scotland, and England at 86.5%, with Dan Biggar at 77.2% and George Ford at 66.7%

Lawrence Dallaglio said:

“Neither England nor Wales has played their best in the Six Nations so far but there is a huge amount of respect between the two teams and, as one of the oldest fixtures and fiercest rivalries in world rugby, each side will want to get one over on the old enemy. Wales has learned how to win rugby matches this season by tight margins with ruthless efficiency and if they hold their nerve they can beat England as well by employing the same game and risk management strategy. England under Eddie Jones will not change their playbook or any of their key players so expect more of the same and thus it will be a very tight game as both teams vie for success by adopting a risk averse strategy.”

How do England beat Wales in Cardiff on Saturday 27 February?

England need to improve their set pieces as, on average per game in 2021, the original source of their tries has been a very high percentage of 83% from broken play, twice the average for the tournament so far, compared to 17% from set pieces (one lineout), less than half the tournament average.

England need to build on their superiority in attack as on average per game in 2021, they had higher running metres than Wales (633 to 479.6) and more passes (124.5 to 112).

England need to continue to kick more to compete and get the ball back as on average per game in 2021, they had 27 contestable kicks out of 56 total kicks, of which they retained possession 5 times, compared to Wales with 14 contestable kicks out of 55 total kicks, of which they retained possession 3 times. In particular, England’s no 9’s nearly always kicked to compete (80%) compared to Wales’ no 9’s who almost always kicked for territory (72%).

England need to target Wales at the lineout as Wales had the worst lineout success at 81.5%, on average per game in the tournament so far, compared to England who had the second best lineout success at 90.9%. This is even more important as the original source of Wales’ tries were four lineouts at 67% of set pieces, nearly twice the tournament average, and only 33% from broken play with two turnovers.

England need to stop Wales scoring in the third quarter of play as on average per game in 2021 Wales has relied on scoring in this quarter to win both matches with a 1 point and 5 point winning margin, with an average points difference in the third quarter of +24, compared to England at +1.

Owen Farrell needs to stop conceding turnovers as he has conceded 9 turnovers, compared to 2 by Dan Biggar of Wales, in the tournament so far, which is 20% of the time he has had the ball.

Sam Harrison, Managing Director of Insurance at QBE Europe, said: “As experts in managing risks for businesses, we have applied the same principles of risk management analysis to identify the key moments when risk and reward are calibrated to provide a predictable outcome. For the first time rugby fans will be able to discover and understand the data behind each team’s approach to the tournament and see how it affects their chances of success. QBE is delighted to be able to introduce these fascinating and hidden aspects of the game to rugby fans across the globe.”

The QBE Risk & Reward Index is a unique and innovative new data tool which shows how rugby teams trade off risk taking and risk mitigation in order to win games in the Guinness Six Nations tournament.