Scotland show superior risk management in Six Nations rugby

Authored by QBE

The QBE Risk & Reward Index demonstrates that Scotland surprised fans by managing the risk and reward elements of the game significantly better than England.

Scotland played more in the opposition Red Zone and, unlike England, turned those visits into points.  Playmaker Finn Russell mitigated risk much better than his opposite number Owen Farrell by kicking more than twice as often, and for nearly twice the territory. Scotland not only maintained their record as the best defence from last year’s tournament but improved and outperformed England in their attack, set piece and discipline.

The QBE Risk & Reward Index is a unique and innovative new data tool which shows how rugby teams trade off risk taking and risk mitigation in order to win games in the Guinness Six Nations tournament.

QBE Ambassador Lawrence Dallaglio said:

“The QBE Risk & Reward Index shows that Scotland beat England last Saturday by managing the risk and reward elements of the game better.  Scotland not only spent more time in the Red Zone than England but converted that into points, whereas England were woeful at Red Zone efficiency.   Finn Russell mitigated risk much better than Owen Farrell by kicking more than twice as much and for nearly double the metres in territory.  England were clueless but Scotland not only maintained their record as the best defence but outperformed England in their attack, set piece and discipline.  England need to have a cold hard look at how they play in the Red Zone as they are the worst performers so far in terms of points scored and efficiency.  Fortunately for Eddie Jones, England can only improve from their performance at Twickenham in the Calcutta Cup.”

The QBE Risk & Reward Index shows that Scotland beat England on 6 February through:

• Better risk and game management by scoring in the opposition Red Zone, with Red Zone efficiency of 0.69 more than twice higher than England’s 0.27, with more entries (16) than England (11) and by seven times more phases (42) than England (6) in the Red Zone.
• Avoiding risk by Scotland’s Finn Russell kicking twice as much for territory with 461 metres and 17 times compared to England’s Owen Farrell kicking 265 metres and 8 times.
• Managing risk with better defence by missing more than a third less tackles (8) than England (27) and conceding more than a half less penalties (7) than England (17).

When compared with their average per game performance in the 2020 tournament, Scotland:

• Maintained their best defence record with tackle success at 92% (92.5%) and improved on their missed tackles at 8 (12)
• Improved their attack record with the best territory 58% (55.8%) and perfect lineout success at 100% compared to 76.1%, the worst performance in the tournament in 2020
• Increased the number of their Red Zone entries to 16 (12) and the most number of phases in the Red Zone to 42 (33.2) but worse Red Zone efficiency of 0.69 (0.98)

In the 2020 Six Nations England won the tournament, with the best risk and game management, by on average per game:

• Conceding the least number of turnovers
• Having the most entries into the opposition Red Zone but the fourth highest Red Zone efficiency (1.14)
• Kicking the most

By contrast, in 2020 Scotland came fourth in the tournament, with the best defence, by on average per game:

• Conceding the most turnovers
• Having the least lineout success
• Having the fifth highest Red Zone efficiency (0.98)
• Conceding the least points
• Having the highest tackle success

Only Italy had less entries into the Red Zone and worse Red Zone efficiency in the 2020 season than Scotland and less points scored in the Red Zone on average per game.

On Saturday, Scotland added three new attributes to their game, in better attack, set piece and discipline, from last year and saw the rewards.

Sam Harrison, Managing Director of Insurance at QBE Europe, said: “As experts in managing risks for businesses, we have applied the same principles of risk management analysis to identify the key moments when risk and reward are calibrated to provide a predictable outcome. For the first time rugby fans will be able to discover and understand the data behind each team’s approach to the tournament and see how it affects their chances of success. QBE is delighted to be able to introduce these fascinating and hidden aspects of the game to rugby fans across the globe.”

Developed by QBE and rugby performance analysts, the QBE Risk & Reward Index goes deeper than conventional rugby analysis by considering the role that defensive and attack risk taking has in winning the Six Nations in 2020 through a number of key performance indicators. The Index then correlates the approach of the teams, and some key playmakers, towards managing risk in the way they play and its impact on success on the pitch in winning matches.

For the first time in rugby analysis, the huge bank of available statistics and metrics are incorporated into an easy to understand measure of risk and reward which shows where and how the game has been and will be won or lost.