Risks and opportunities in space: The sky's the limit

Humans have looked to the heavens for millennia, surveying the immensity of space, which has inspired many to dream of exploring it. While space exploration only became possible in the latter half of the 20th Century, much progress has been made. Ongoing innovation and risk-taking have led to the birth and growth of a robust space industry. As AXA XL contemplates the future of activity in space, we foresee enormous opportunities and risks that, with effective management, will deliver long-term benefits for humankind.

A fundamental component of space-based activity, whether for scientific experiments or commercial purposes, is an environment where humans can live and work in space. The International Space Station (ISS) has been a remarkable example of international cooperation and collaboration since the first module was put into low Earth orbit in 1998. Scheduled for retirement in 2031, the ISS is already playing a critical role in the development of commercial space stations operated by commercial enterprises.

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has a Commercial Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Development Program with several private-sector space organizations, which will provide services to NASA and other space programs after the ISS is decommissioned. Known as commercial LEO destinations (CLDs), these commercially owned and operated platforms are expected to assist NASA and its international partners to augment its Artemis program. Artemis missions will return humans to the moon and conduct research to prepare for human missions to Mars.

Space investments growing
Between 2012 and 2021, annual investments in the space sector increased from $300 million to $10 billion, a trajectory that appears likely to continue, according to a McKinsey & Company analysis. The majority of these investments went toward LEO ventures such as small satellites for Earth observation and telecommunications.

Access to orbital platforms for research and experimentation, Earth monitoring and observation, astronomy and astrophysics are useful not only for governments and scientific institutions; private-sector organizations increasingly are looking to pursue manufacturing innovations in orbit, too. The microgravity environment allows innovative manufacturing activities that are difficult or impossible on Earth.

Space investments will create more opportunities for innovation and technological expansion, resulting in the development of products and services in orbit.

Space investments will create more opportunities for innovation and technological expansion, resulting in the development of products and services in orbit. With commercial space activity increasing, cost reductions will allow more industries to enter this business. As space activity grows, new risks arise, introducing new opportunities for the space industry to partner with the global insurance market. Just as in terrestrial ventures, space projects can succeed when businesses map and understand their risks and find ways to mitigate them. AXA XL has strong technical teams in various lines of business that, together, are prepared and well-positioned to help the space industry navigate risks and achieve sustainable growth.

Mitigating a continuum of risks
Commercial space stations and the equipment necessary to launch and support them entail complex operations and logistics, spanning multiple industries and locations. AXA XL is already a leading global insurer in providing a variety of products for complex industrial projects, including space, experienced to build up capacities in traditional risk transfer markets as well as generating capacities through Alternative Risk Transfer and other innovative insurance solutions. As commercial space activity increases, we envision new opportunities to provide insurance coverage for in-orbit servicing, assembly, and manufacturing (ISAM). ISAM for commercial space operations will occur well before the International Space Station’s retirement in 2031, as NASA’s current plan calls for disassembly of sections of the ISS so they can be safely removed from orbit. Replacement capabilities will need to be launched and assembled in space before that occurs.

Several companies have formed industrial partnerships to design, develop, and deploy commercial space stations. Some commercial free-flying space station modules – that is, not attached to the ISS – may be available as early as 2026. Initial construction of large modules and elements will take place on Earth, then these elements will be launched to orbit, assembled, and maintained by humans, using tools and robotics. Structures designed for space are at once bulky and delicate, and typically have high monetary value. They require careful handling throughout their assembly and testing on Earth, launch and deployment, and throughout their operation in space.

It's easy to envision the continuum of risks for these complex and high-value elements at all points of their journey from manufacturing to entering service in orbit. As a result, several different types of insurance coverage may come into play, including:

• Property. Protection of property against risk of physical loss or damage, including manufacturing and assembly sites, machinery, equipment, supplies, space modules and elements along the entire supply chain. The wholistic and unique production cycle of these projects needs a tailor-made insurance product, mirroring the production specifics and high-quality standards of the space industry until launch.
• Erection. Erections or modifications of real property such as product plants and launch facilities on Earth to facilitate the project success.
• Construction (on Earth). Assembly and testing of equipment, machinery, space modules and elements on Earth prior to launch.
• Marine. Modules and elements built on the ground must be transported to launch sites and prepared for launch, and marine insurance is well equipped to respond to the unique risks of large and specialized cargo.
• Space. Insurance for property destined for orbit, space insurance covers launch, in-orbit, and re-entry risks as well as third-party liability for bodily injury and property damage.
• Construction (in Space). Assembly in orbit, whether by humans or robots, is a form of construction risk, with which AXA XL and other insurers are well acquainted.
• Political risk, credit and bonds. The international nature of space ventures can introduce political and credit risks, including with respect to financing and international law. Commercial bonds provide a cost-effective form of risk transfer to meet contractual obligations, which can ensure funding to complete projects.
• Casualty. Products liability can arise from products made on commercial space stations, which might include pharmaceuticals, optical fiber, and other items. Other forms of casualty insurance – accident and health, workers compensation, and employers’ liability – may be needed to protect crews assembling materials in space.

It is important to design a seamless continuation of risk transfer along the value chain starting from manufacturing the supplies, transport, launching to space, and final assembly and testing at destination.

Mitigating the risk of commercial space ventures through novel insurance products will bring numerous long-term advantages. Ultimately, the specialized skills and insurance products that the insurance industry develops for these projects will be used to protect people and property in outposts on the Moon, Mars, and beyond.

Authored by:

Thisiani Martins - Global Chief Underwriting Officer of Aerospace at AXA XL, based in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
Chris Kunstadter - Global Head of Space at AXA XL, based in Washington, D.C.
AnneMarie - Global Chief Underwriting Officer of Marine at AXA XL, based in Hartford, Connecticut.
Juergen.Cherreck - Global Chief Underwriting Officer of Property, Energy & Construction at AXA XL, based in Zurich, Switzerland.