QBE Supercomputer predicts most competitive Six Nations in years


The early fixtures in this year’s Guinness Six Nations tournament have brought their fair share of surprises with pre-tournament favourites England looking more than a little shaky and outsiders France getting off to a flying start with two dominant victories.

However, according to predictions by catastrophe planners at QBE Business Insurance using a complex mathematical formula and computer model, table-toppers France and Ireland are both set to lose their games this weekend, turning the table on its head and setting up a potentially nail-biting finish to this year’s tournament.

The QBE Rugby Predictor, which applies techniques actuaries use to predict the impact of catastrophes such as earthquakes and floods, simulates the tournament 10,000 times producing outcomes from 150,000 games. The experts have concluded that England will push aside Ireland with a 27-18 victory at Twickenham, while Wales will defeat the on form France 19-14 at the Principality Stadium, leaving only a few points separating the four teams in the battle for first place going into the final two weeks of the tournament.

Ireland’s early form has meant they have moved into pole position as favourites to win the tournament with the Predictor giving them a 46% chance of glory, while England’s jittery start has meant they have moved down to second favourites with a 36% chance of ending the tournament as champions.

The tough competition at this year’s tournament has meant that a Grand Slam winner is unlikely with the supercomputer predicting an 80% chance of no-one winning the Grand Slam. Only Ireland have a chance of finishing the tournament undefeated of 15%.

The predictions are based on analysis by QBE actuaries of scores, results, past events and incidents over the last 10 years using a wide range of variables including the number of tries, kicks and conversions scored by the teams, the caps of each captain, latest world ranking and home and away advantage.

Sam Harrison, Managing Director of Insurance at QBE Europe, said: “We can put all the science in the world into predicting the future, but we can never be 100% sure. We have already seen a few surprise results in the opening fixtures and the supercomputers predictions suggest there may be a few more surprises yet to come. Just as we advise businesses to prepare for many different outcomes, the teams need to be at their resilient best to overcome the opposition this weekend.”


Authored by QBE


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