Ireland still outright favourites for Six Nations crown

Authored by QBE Head of Media Relations & Content Sandra Villanueva

According to forecasts by QBE Business Insurance, Ireland are 99% likely to retain their Six Nations crown after a nail-biting defeat to England at Twickenham on Saturday with Marcus Smith winning the game with a magical drop goal in the final minute.

Ireland were strong favourites to beat England, with many predicting a more than comfortable margin of victory, but England pulled off their best performance for years and broke Irish hearts.

This weekend Ireland host Scotland and need a draw or a win to guarantee the trophy stays in Dublin. Although consecutive tournament victories is an impressive feat, there will be a slight cloud over the occasion as they miss out on both the Triple Crown and Grand Slam. Scotland could rub more salt into Irish wounds by winning the match and claiming their first Triple Crown in the Six Nations era in the process. The QBE Predictor deems this unlikely however, Scotland are coming off the back of a shock defeat to Italy and Ireland are the sort of team to bounce back well from disappointment. Ireland are forecast to win 27-15 and lift the trophy.

England travel to Lyon to face France and will be far more confident doing so off the back of their impressive victory against Ireland. The team were written off before the match but things seemed to finally click for Steve Borthwick’s men who played with confidence and attacking flair that has been disappointingly absent up until last Saturday. Saturday's victory gave England a slim chance of winning the tournament outright. To do so they will need to beat France in France, a feat England have not achieved since 2016, the last time they won a Grand Slam. France will also be buoyed by their performance in Cardiff on Sunday. After an underwhelming tournament so far things started to click, although some suspect defence will give England confidence. Despite success against Ireland the QBE Predictor forecasts a 30-19 win for France, a result that regardless of the scoreline in Dublin earlier in the day will guarantee an Irish tournament win.

The first match of the weekend sees Wales host Italy in the Wooden Spoon decider. Wales are yet to win a match this year and if that trend continues on Saturday they will find themselves in possession of the Wooden Spoon. Italy will be riding high after their outstanding performance at home to Scotland and they have an opportunity to finish above bottom spot for the first time in years and for the first time in history go undefeated for three consecutive Six Nations matches. Sadly for the neutrals Italian momentum is due to run out with Wales set to win 25-15 according to the QBE Predictor.

David Jones, Director of Underwriting at QBE, said:
“This week the QBE Predictor forecasts an Irish victory and a tournament win although the result is not absolutely guaranteed. England pulled off the unexpected last weekend and will be hoping for an upset in Paris and for Scotland to derail the Irish in Dublin. Of all matches played this tournament, Saturday’s game in Twickenham perfectly underlined the point that we must be prepared for a range of possible outcomes. Just as we advise businesses to prepare for unexpected events, the players and coaches should be preparing for unlikely occurrences and how to take advantage too.”

Round Five score predictions:

Tournament Predictions:

The QBE Predictor simulates the tournament 10,000 times producing outcomes from 150,000 games with every match replicated by generating a number of tries, conversions and penalties scored by each team. The predictions are based on analysis by QBE actuaries of how well each team has played in the past against opposition of a similar ranking, as well as the success ratio for kickers, and the international experience of each team captain.