The latest predictions for an above average hurricane season
The current predictions (as at 25th June 2020) call for an above average season, with a mean forecast of 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.
The North Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on 1st June and ends 30th November, with August, September and October representing the busiest three months.
More than 20 research groups, private companies and universities produce seasonal hurricane forecasts each year. The current predictions (as at 25th June 2020) call for an above average season, with a mean forecast of 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
The spread in forecasts is lower than in recent years, with 65% predicting an extremely active season (9+ hurricanes). This is driven by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts, which indicate that ENSO-neutral or LaNiña conditions will dominate this year, both of which are associated with above average activity (e.g. 2005, 2017).
These forecasts appear reliable so far, with the 2020 season already breaking records. It is the sixth year in a row with a named storm forming prior to June 1st. In fact, three systems have developed so far – Arthur (May 17th), Bertha (May 27th), and Cristobal (June 2nd). This makes 2020 unique, with no other Atlantic season on record with three named storms this early in the year.
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